Photo: JOAO LUIZ BULCAO / AFP / Getty Images
A single Polymarket trader known by the pseudonym FlickRaw reportedly lost $4.2 million betting on World Cup soccer matches in less than 24 hours, highlighting the high risks of prediction markets during what is shaping up to be the biggest sports gambling event in history. FlickRaw first lost $2.7 million wagering that the Netherlands would defeat Japan. Despite the Dutch taking the lead twice, Japan managed a 2-2 draw after equalizing in the 88th minute, causing the bet to lose all value.
Undeterred, FlickRaw returned to the platform the following day, risking an additional $1.5 million on Belgium to win against Egypt. However, that position was also wiped out after Belgium and Egypt drew 1-1 on Monday. Both bets and their potential returns were promoted by Polymarket before each match, with the Belgium wager offering a potential gross return of around $2.4 million had it succeeded.
Market data from Polymarket showed Belgium as the clear favorite in Group G, reflecting strong confidence in the team’s prospects. Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah, was seen as the main challenger after the draw, while Iran and New Zealand remained underdogs. The results left the group standings wide open ahead of upcoming matches.
Large losses are not uncommon for high-stakes traders on Polymarket and other prediction markets. As reported by Decrypt Media, the 2026 World Cup has already seen other dramatic swings, including a $1 million loss when Spain failed to beat Cape Verde. Academic research indicates nearly 69% of users on these platforms have lost money since 2022, with extreme bets—like those placed by FlickRaw—accounting for a disproportionate share of losses.
With more World Cup matches ahead and billions in trading volume expected, regulators are keeping a close eye on the sector, but traders continue to take big risks in pursuit of big rewards. The next round of matches on Friday (June 21) and Thursday (June 26) could further shake up group standings and betting outcomes.
You can follow the US Men's National Team and listen to Fox's coverage of all 104 FIFA World Cup 2026 games LIVE and for FREE via iHeartRadio’s digital app and more than 100 broadcast stations nationwide! You can also get the latest news and updates with iHeartRadio's lineup of soccer-focused podcasts, including Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogert and Tab Ramos and The Away End with Daniel Alarcón and John Green.